There are plenty of shrills piling on the poor 1Q numbers by Joy Global this AM before the market opened. I have to wonder when the “masters of the obvious” will acknowledge that we didn’t learn anything new today from JOYG that we didn’t price in 3 months ago.
Recapping a couple macro themes from today that are part of larger macro views we have.
CRB (Commodity Index) at highs not seen since Oct 2012.
On March 13th we pitched the trade to buy copper miners on the drastic pullback in spot copper prices.
Copper is oversold and so are miners who mine for the red metal. Trading Copper underlying is often something the experts can’t even do well because it is not an efficient market on the exchanges and there are one-off factors that mean day to day swings are inaccurate.
Iron Ore (IO) has run from $86 per ton to $122 per ton with expectations that prices will hold at this elevated level. According senior resource analyst at Mine Life Pty in Sydney, Gavin Wendt told Bloomberg Network “Prices will stay about where they are now until 2013,”
For the last few weeks I have been talking about the nascent China recovery. It’s not your 2009 China recovery – but it’s definitely enough to take prices higher.