Russia – 7th straight down day and getting closer to our trading buy call.
The pain trade in the Sochi Olympics has been pulling for the Russian hockey team (who was eliminated today. As Dick Enberg would say “Oh my!”) but the pain trade in the currency markets may in fact be the Russian Ruble which today has fallen to all-time lows against the Euro and dancing near worst of the crisis (Feb 09) and all-time lows.
Looking at the Russian ruble against the U.S. dollar looks like it was trying to mimic the Space X launch yesterday. I can just imagine what a beautiful sight the launch was as the rocket cleared roof lines.
As U.S. consumers applaud lower gasoline prices, our gain is someone else’s pain. As with any trade, there are two sides: stock markets that depend on the price of crude oil are feeling the pinch as prices move lower.
With the lightened holiday trading the currency markets are consolidating thus far and appear to be avoiding violent intraday price swings on the thin volume. This condition may not hold true as traders come back online in the overnight session.
In October, Dmitry Medvedev solicited the advice of top Wall Street executives from J.P. Morgan Chase, Blackstone, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. The Russian president wanted — and still wants — to make Russia an international business and finance center.
As we mentioned in our recent post, Russia’s latest round of upheaval-spawned volatility created plenty of value opportunities in a list of the country’s biggest companies. Today let’s take a look at how the Russian ruble is faring against the U.S. dollar during this turmoil period.
Now that central bankers in Russia have started selling dollars to support the ruble, their currency still looks precarious even within the world of emerging markets foreign exchange.