The U.S. dollar gave way to the New Zealand dollar (NZD) early in the Asian trading (8:30 p.m. EDT – 11:00 p.m.) when New Zealand Merchandise Terms of Trade jumped by 4.1% for Q1. It’s the first positive result since a December of 2011. New Zealand Merchandise Terms of Trade has seen 6 consecutive quarters of decline.
The currency markets are starting off the week under pressure on growing concerns over the crisis in the euro zone.
All we the themes in the currency markets have surrounded the U.S. fiscal cliff from the stand point that the U.S. fiscal cliff can be averted. It this sentiment coupled with positive New Zealand economic data has sent the New Zealand dollar higher against the U.S. dollar. The NZD/USD pair hit a 3 week intraday high of 0.82686 in early trading.
The New Zealand dollar ticked lower against the U.S. dollar as traders continue be cautious post Spain’s Friday banking system’s stress test results. Concerns continue to weigh on global economic outlook along with concerns from Moody’s rating agency suggesting the Spain may need more than 59.3 billion euros the Stress test indicated.
A quick look at some short term developments and status updates in the currency markets. Sentiment remains going short the USD/CAD and long the USD/JPY.
The New Zealand dollar otherwise known as the kiwi continues its climb higher in the U.S. session after a pullback where price appeared to be getting ready to roll over. Risk sentiment has come back into focus with Greek lawmakers approving austerity measures to being the process of securing the next round of bailouts for the financially devastated country.
Tomorrow afternoon at 3 ET the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to maintain its current policy, but traders will be focused the accompanying written statement to gleam prospects for future policy.Do not discount the possibility of increased volatility in the NZD/USD.
Overnight trading in the forex markets changed little with traders focused on the EU leaders’ summit later in the week to see whether policymakers can finally coordinate efforts on the euro zone debt crisis.
On Monday we suggested traders get ahead of the “Super Committee” by selling the NZD/USD currency pair at 0.7500 or better. It turns out the “Super Committee” was not so super, the euro zone is still in turmoil and now Germany is having problems with its bond auctions, pushing traders to risk off conditions.
As we head into the shortened holiday week, we see the U.S. dollar gain ground this morning after last week’s consolidation from short-term profit-taking. Traders are nervous about the odds of a deadlock in the congressional Super Committee and the very real possibility that U.S. officials will make much meaningful progress toward reducing the massive deficit in any event.