Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 17 – Today’s market move stems from not just a question about how much policy can be adopted in the short to medium term, but also concern that the Republican stranglehold on Washington maybe dissipating.
Janet Yellen gave Dollar Bears ammunition to look to the charts. Dollar Bulls are in abundance but that may be the problem. Once again the USD is an overweight long that despite the obvious presence of the Fed can’t get out of its way.
My first comment is that is pretty annoying to have to deal with Greece volatility this Sunday when I would rather bask in the US Woman’s World Cup win!! #USAUSAUSA…truly dominant performance.
Today’s headlines on Greece are NOT in the market’s volatility range or where equities should feel comfortable at this level.
Europe remains a tradable rally that has basis in fundamentals and momentum.
The euro is finding a toe hole on speculation that the new Greece government may soften its stance and work with international creditors.
The spot price of crude oil pushed higher in the news of Saudia Arabia King Abdullah’s passing. The bulls are speculating on a shift in Saudia Arabia’s policy of letting crude prices to fall.
The European Central Bank (ECB) exceeded expectations (so rare in life) with their monthly 60 billion euro asset purchasing until Sept 2016 and an open ended loaded bazooka in their pocket.
A look at the chart of the DXY shows the Dollar basket kissing the lows of Feb ’13 and testing all the way back to levels that were established in early 2012.
Since the Fed many non G3 currencies have made higher lows against the Dollar. We think some weaker U.S. data today on housing along with better external data for many of the FX crosses we are watching means this trend can continue.
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