As we see the US emerge from the winter hibernation (Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Jobless Claims), we are also seeing signs of Emerging Markets recovery on Macro.
As the US threatens to escalate sanctions, the question remains how effective sanctions can be, and what would be the scale of them.
India elections will start on April 7th and last into May 16th. Significant change has been priced into the SENEX (see chart below) into the event. Are investors set up disappointment?
Emerging Market equities are outperforming the SPX today by 1.2% and have now rallied 7.6% in 2 weeks even as the SPX hits all-time highs.
Here are the three events we are watching next week to shape market sentiment and key macro trades:
Spike in volatility today is right on the money but a few days late. Where ya been? We argued last week that the S&P was running into exhaustion levels somewhere north of 9% from the 200mda. We think that headwind would have made sense under any technical scenario.