Spike in volatility today is right on the money but a few days late. Where ya been? We argued last week that the S&P was running into exhaustion levels somewhere north of 9% from the 200mda. We think that headwind would have made sense under any technical scenario.
By relative measures to this bull run, at 10% over the 200mda its time to pause. Add in Ukraine and China risks and its not a question. The S&P is now down small YTD flat ytd but was at all-time highs 3 days ago. EM meanwhile is -4.5% in 5 sessions and now sits at historic spread lows to the SPY, quote (vs EEM, quote) at .2065. EM prices in risk fast, Europe tends to be a little jumpy as well.
The US market must understand that there needs to be some fear in how investors view the conditions of growth and the political backdrop that is only a degree or two away from talking a geo-political risk off into something that has financial ramifications. We continue to caution investors to protect their books with broader "risk sympathizers" like small caps (IWM, quote), materials (XLB, quote) , and EM FX. All will perform well here on the short side.