We have been off in our call that Gold was going to test $1100 in 2014 before finding a base.  We have been right on in our call that the gold miners were the play if you found a level in gold spot. 

Public Domain imageWhile we don't expect gold to find the broader consensus bid of 2012, we are seeing central bank buying increase and global tensions are always a baseline trigger for gold. 

Gold levels to watch

Gold levels to watch

The  trade in the next 3 weeks is with gold and the USD. If you believe Putin & Co are going to escalate even further then you  can play both form the long side.  The DXY should be range bid up to 81.00 levels.

 

Barrick Gold has been our preferred mining play in the sector based on their balance sheet, improved free cash flow and conservative gold price assumption ($1100/oz vs many other miners who are closer to $1300-$1500).

After encouraging some profit taking around $21.50 level (6 month resistance) we would reload here with a stop at 18.25.

Barrick Gold ABX

Barrick Gold ABX

 

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