Emerging Money http://emergingmoney.com Your Ticket Around The World Mon, 27 Jun 2016 19:23:27 +0000 en hourly 1 What We Are Watching: Dollar Realities http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/what-we-are-watching-dollar-realities-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/what-we-are-watching-dollar-realities-2/#respond Mon, 27 Jun 2016 19:16:53 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=133684 We have been stalwarts on saying the Dollar has peaked for this cycle. We also didn’t factor a Brexit vote into the USD path. Binary or not binary in hindsight that approach seems short sighted. We will take the market we have rather than the one we want which is what we have been doing [...]]]> We have been stalwarts on saying the Dollar has peaked for this cycle. We also didn’t factor a Brexit vote into the USD path. Binary or not binary in hindsight that approach seems short sighted. We will take the market we have rather than the one we want which is what we have been doing when assessing risk and our outlook on how key asset classes will trade.

Un_dollar_usWhat are we looking at today is the unintended consequence but clear risk extension that comes from a dramatic move higher in the USD (UUP, quote) A move lower in the Chinese Yuan that is both larger in scope than expected and that comes with policy uncertainties from China that will then trigger larger risk off moves if not well translated.

Last night the Chinese set the CNY at 6.6375 which was 0.9% weaker than the close on Friday. The currency then traded to its lowest level since 2010 as a result. We don’t need to remind investors that China’s approach to devaluing the currency in August of 2015 set off a fire storm that led us into the new year and triggered fresh lows after a late fall rally.

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call Part II June 27 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-part-ii-june-27/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-part-ii-june-27/#respond Mon, 27 Jun 2016 19:07:07 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=133668 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call Part II June 27 - As we head into the last 90 minutes of trading we want to give Emerging Money investors some perspective on where we are with key indices,
and trading dynamics that needs to be at least acknowledged in the face of what we believe will [...]]]>
Emerging Money Daily Audio Call Part II June 27 - As we head into the last 90 minutes of trading we want to give Emerging Money investors some Phone Audioperspective on where we are with key indices,
and trading dynamics that needs to be at least acknowledged in the face of what we believe will be a protracted period of uncertainty.

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 27 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-june-27-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-june-27-2/#respond Mon, 27 Jun 2016 15:36:11 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=133638 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 27 - As we head into the European close we are seeing some of the rally off the floor in risk hit profit taking.

Regardless markets are well off their Asian lows and we begin to assess where specific sectors and asset classes are headed next week.

We remain [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 27 - As we head into the European close we are seeing some of the rally off the floor in risk hit profit taking.

Phone AudioRegardless markets are well off their Asian lows and we begin to assess where specific sectors and asset classes are headed next week.

We remain cautious if the role Japan plays in all of this from a policy perspective later in July.

Japan may very well tip the apple cart that the Brits threw on its edge.

Tune into your account for to listen to the full audio call as we get ready for an interesting week.

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Brexit Audio Update 2 http://emergingmoney.com/emerging-markets-insight/brexit-audio-update-2-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/emerging-markets-insight/brexit-audio-update-2-2/#respond Fri, 24 Jun 2016 15:34:44 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=133418 As we head into the European close we are seeing some of the rally off the floor in risk hit profit taking.

Regardless markets are well off their Asian lows and we begin to assess where specific sectors and asset classes are headed next week.

We remain cautious if the role Japan plays in all [...]]]> As we head into the European close we are seeing some of the rally off the floor in risk hit profit taking.

brexit-shutterstock2Regardless markets are well off their Asian lows and we begin to assess where specific sectors and asset classes are headed next week.

We remain cautious if the role Japan plays in all of this from a policy perspective later in July.

Japan may very well tip the apple cart that the Brits threw on its edge.

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Brexit – Update Round 1 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/brexit-update-round-1-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/brexit-update-round-1-2/#respond Fri, 24 Jun 2016 14:38:46 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=133406 On the call we give you first round thoughts after a wild night of polling and trading.

Clearly Brexit inspires volatility and risk off…surprise Brexit brings all that and more.

This morning we assess current levels and the reaction of key asset classes to this point.

We will come to you later today with [...]]]> On the call we give you first round thoughts after a wild night of polling and trading.

Queen-Brexit-SunClearly Brexit inspires volatility and risk off…surprise Brexit brings all that and more.

This morning we assess current levels and the reaction of key asset classes to this point.

We will come to you later today with more thoughts on “what next?”

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Special Emerging Money Audio Call June 23 – Brexit http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/special-emerging-money-audio-call-june-23-brexit/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/special-emerging-money-audio-call-june-23-brexit/#respond Thu, 23 Jun 2016 18:00:44 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=133236 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 23 - On the call we review the probabilities but more importantly look at markets that have stepped ahead of the Brexit vote and made their own statement.

Now what?

Clearly Brexit is not the end of the line for Euro-sceptic nations and there remain and handful of events [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 23 - On the call we review the probabilities but more importantly look at markets that have stepped Phone Audioahead of the Brexit vote and made their own statement.

Now what?

Clearly Brexit is not the end of the line for Euro-sceptic nations and there remain and handful of events in the next 6-9 months that will jeep this tired issue as a focus for markets.

For now what are the drivers for different asset classes?

We review and will update investors later with more insight into the markets and the vote.

 

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Brexit: Should This Currency Be Trading At Highs For the Year? http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/brexit-should-this-currency-be-trading-at-highs-for-the-year-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/brexit-should-this-currency-be-trading-at-highs-for-the-year-2/#respond Thu, 23 Jun 2016 17:38:54 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=133266 The Chart of the GBP is clearly reveling in the expectation of Remain vote in the Brexit saga but should it be trading at levels it saw last year before the Brexit gambit was a reality?

The Pound should not be rewarded for its master, UK staying in the EU beyond its fundamentals. The UK [...]]]> The Chart of the GBP is clearly reveling in the expectation of Remain vote in the Brexit saga but should it be trading at levels it saw last year before the Brexit gambit was a reality?

BrexitThe Pound should not be rewarded for its master, UK staying in the EU beyond its fundamentals. The UK is a triple deficit country with the trade balance and fiscal deficit weighing on the GBP. At a minimum the UK will survive this vote and limp towards 1.5% GDP growth with an economy that is reliant on services that are slowly eroding ( See Financial Services). The fiscal deficit is about 4% of GDP and getting worse.

Risk Reward has this relief rally as a short term fade. The brighter picture for the path of the currency is related to commodities and reflation trades, and even global growth. Over my investing history I have used the GBP (FXB, quote) ...

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EM vs SPY: No One Said This Would Be Easy http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/em-vs-spy-no-one-said-this-would-be-easy-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/em-vs-spy-no-one-said-this-would-be-easy-2/#respond Mon, 20 Jun 2016 14:29:19 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=132688 EM (EEM, quote) has had multiple fits and starts in the last 9 months and even last three years where it looked like long time underperformance was coming to end vs the SPX.

This morning's rally on fresh Brexit polling may give the asset class the next leg of ammunition [...]]]> EM (EEM, quote) has had multiple fits and starts in the last 9 months and even last three years where it looked like long time underperformance was coming to end vs the SPX.

brexit-shutterstock2This morning's rally on fresh Brexit polling may give the asset class the next leg of ammunition it needs now that the Fed is stepping out of the way. The great thing about this trading relationship is that it has merit for both short term tactical traders and long term investors alike.

The long term outlook favors owning this spread for the next 18 months as US earnings continue to sputter and policy will be a major question mark. A bottoming (our view) in commodities and topping tin the USD (UUP, quote) gives the investors both the catalysts and the rationale for a longer term move.

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 20 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-june-20-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-june-20-2/#respond Mon, 20 Jun 2016 14:12:28 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=132682 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 20 -  A fresh UK poll in favor of BREMAIN and global stocks have now fuel to turn the reversal we saw last week into the second powerful test of key technical levels and an emphatic response.

A dip in vol is still to be owned it’s just a [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 20 -  A fresh UK poll in favor of BREMAIN and global stocks have now fuel to turn the reversal we saw last week into the second powerful test of key technical levels and an emphatic response.

Phone AudioA dip in vol is still to be owned it’s just a question of how you handle the underlying trade.

What’s the world look like after Brexit? We discuss the trades that are not only the unwind of fear trades but where you have a long term answer to being directionally long.

Tune into your account for to listen to the full audio call as we get ready for an interesting week.

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 14 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-june-14-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-june-14-2/#respond Tue, 14 Jun 2016 20:39:29 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=132071 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 14 - On the call today we review the macro considerations going into the Fed meeting and why the Fed is in hold and what this means for trading EM and Commodity assets.

As well we will cover a  handful of technicals on the call.

Tune into your account [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 14 - On the call today we review the macro considerations going into the Fed meeting Phone Audioand why the Fed is in hold and what this means for trading EM and Commodity assets.

As well we will cover a  handful of technicals on the call.

Tune into your account for to listen to the full audio call

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