Emerging Money http://emergingmoney.com Your Ticket Around The World Fri, 29 May 2015 17:47:42 +0000 en-US hourly 1 EM Fund Flows: Don’t Be Confused By Last Week’s Big Inflows http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/em-fund-flows-dont-be-confused-by-last-weeks-big-inflows/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/em-fund-flows-dont-be-confused-by-last-weeks-big-inflows/#comments Fri, 29 May 2015 17:47:20 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=87049 Last night we got fresh EM fund flow data in the face of what has been a bit of a rout in EM equities. 

According to the EPFR who does this fine work on compiling the numbers, EM (EEM, quote) fund flows through May 27th were up a [...]]]> Last night we got fresh EM fund flow data in the face of what has been a bit of a rout in EM equities. 

Emerging marketsAccording to the EPFR who does this fine work on compiling the numbers, EM (EEM, quote) fund flows through May 27th were up a whopping $4.1Bn or the best number seen since July of ’14.  The problem with these numbers are that they circle back to China as the primary source of the funds and therefore take you back to a domain fear theme of the week – China equities are in a bubble (yes/no?)

Chinese equities saw inflows of $4.6Bn or 1.43% of their total AUM.  EM ex-China actually saw outflows last week of a few hundred million Dollars.

YTD EM has seen an overall outflow of $16Bn in AUM.  China (FXI, quote)  however is $15Bn of the total $16bn thus this week may just be evening the score. Meanwhile India is up over $6Bn in find flows and therefore is dominating as the overweight play in EM allocation.  This is some also to consider when looking at India performance since the highs in February when most of these funds had been digested.  South Korea is another big laggard with -$2Bn in flows so far YTD.

Conclusion: Chinese equities surge may just be compensating for some of the outflows seen.  India could be vulnerable.  We remain OW So Korea.

chart 6

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Today’s Emerging Money Audio Call has Been Released http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-17/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-17/#comments Fri, 29 May 2015 15:11:07 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=87029 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 29 - On the call today we review the events of the week and highlight how currencies and rates never move as fast as the consensus expect based on perceived fundamentals. 

But that doesn't stop extreme periods of overheated sentiment.  Where are we now with the [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 29 - On the call today we review the events of the week and highlight how currencies and rates never move as fast as the consensus expect based on perceived fundamentals. 

Phone AudioBut that doesn't stop extreme periods of overheated sentiment.  Where are we now with the USD, Rates, and Greece?

What does EM need to rally or defend itself from a terrible May?

Should you be scared by the moves in the Chinese market this week?

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Today’s Emerging Money Audio Call has Been Released http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-16/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-16/#comments Thu, 28 May 2015 17:22:47 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=86873 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 28 - Emerging Markets taking it on the chin as capital flows are more dominant than the underlying reality of the Dollars move. 

EM currencies are the focus today.  How do you trade from these levels.

China last night part of the fear factor in markets today [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 28 - Emerging Markets taking it on the chin as capital flows are more dominant than the underlying reality of the Dollars move. 

Phone AudioEM currencies are the focus today.  How do you trade from these levels.

China last night part of the fear factor in markets today with a violent reversal intra-day and into the close.  China clearly is frothy but we are not scared yet.  We are opportunistic on playing the FXI.  We detail...

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Todays Emerging Money Daily Audio Call Has Been Released, Wednesday May 27th 2015 http://emergingmoney.com/uncategorized/todays-emerging-money-daily-audio-call-has-been-released-wednesday-may-27th-2015/ http://emergingmoney.com/uncategorized/todays-emerging-money-daily-audio-call-has-been-released-wednesday-may-27th-2015/#comments Wed, 27 May 2015 15:21:35 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=86630 On the call today we follow the continuing currency saga as it hits EM and commodity assets.  Currencies don’t move in one direction forever and can be overbot and oversold therefore….?

What do you do with EM exposure here after a 5% pullback in the EEM over almost three weeks? 

 How does China feel [...]]]> On the call today we follow the continuing currency saga as it hits EM and commodity assets.  Currencies don’t move in one direction forever and can be overbot and oversold therefore….?

What do you do with EM exposure here after a 5% pullback in the EEM over almost three weeks? 

 How does China feel about inflation right now and what does this mean to global markets?Phone Audio

Tune into your account for more information….

 

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Chart Of The Day: Euro Getting Close Again… http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/chart-of-the-day-euro-getting-close-again-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/chart-of-the-day-euro-getting-close-again-2/#comments Wed, 27 May 2015 14:42:48 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=86618 Trade the range on the major currencies except the Yen.  The Euro will not go through parity on this run despite momentum now which seems like it is almost as bad as it was in mid-March as we hit 1.o519 lows.   The Dollar will have a move higher but not to 110 on this run.  [...]]]> Trade the range on the major currencies except the Yen.  The Euro will not go through parity on this run despite momentum now which seems like it is almost as bad as it was in mid-March as we hit 1.o519 lows.   The Dollar will have a move higher but not to 110 on this run.  We think the Yen breakout lower (higher numerically) is clear and decided and not an overnight event but one that has been building.  It's not time to short USD/JPY but we are getting closer on USD/EURO levels to rebuilding a long Euro position.currency-trading

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Today’s Emerging Money Audio Call has Been Released http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-14/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-14/#comments Tue, 26 May 2015 15:39:42 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=86451 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 26 - Global markets trade like it’s the start of May not the end of May as US players come back from a long holiday weekend to confront major FX volatility and fresh Greek noise that is a little louder than usual…

Volatility will continue to move [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 26 - Global markets trade like it’s the start of May not the end of May as US players come back from a long holiday weekend to confront major FX volatility and fresh Greek noise that is a little louder than usual…

Phone AudioVolatility will continue to move higher if the velocity of these FX moves remains at hyper-speed. 

EM needs to defend a couple key level on the $EEM.  We also point out that China may in fact be making the pain overall for EM much less than it should be with the macro backdrop playing out as it is…

So much for a gold breakout>  While we have not at all advocated a long gold position we did question whether you were seeing a bottoming process that would allow for investment in Gold miners.  What do we think now?

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Monday Morning Charts on a Tuesday http://emergingmoney.com/emerging-markets-insight/monday-morning-charts-on-a-tuesday/ http://emergingmoney.com/emerging-markets-insight/monday-morning-charts-on-a-tuesday/#comments Tue, 26 May 2015 15:29:46 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=86418 We start the week after a long holiday weekend in the States with a quick review of key macro charts and themes for markets. 

 FX volatility means much higher volatility for markets.  We think markets are too complacent here:

 

 The USD once again is a wrecking ball for EM, Commodities and seemingly [...]]]> We start the week after a long holiday weekend in the States with a quick review of key macro charts and themes for markets. 

 FX volatility means much higher volatility for markets.  We think markets are too complacent here:

 chart1

 The USD once again is a wrecking ball for EM, Commodities and seemingly for risk if the pace of the move continues to be this brisk.  Watching for breakout signals.  Out call for the last month remains.  UDSD to test 98.50 before pullback.  We remain long EUO$ short Euro:  The DXY is back above the 20dma which has been the arbiter of its path trend.  Still on long term upward trajectory.

chart2

The most interesting move this AM is the move in the JPY:  Now 8.5yr lows

 chart3

 Japanese Equities remain on fire:

chart4

 Euro:  in line, moving lower on Greece panic and Dollar move.  1.065-1.075 range to watch.  Nothing to do until then…

 chart5

EM currencies are blowing out in sympathy to the USD move higher.  No better poster child of risk than the Brazilian Real: After fighting though the 50dma through the 50mda in April and breaking lower we have seen a major reversal:

 chart6

 Look at the breakdown this AM at the onset of trading…

 chart7

 Take profits in Turkey we say.  You will be back:  TRY blowing out.  

 chart8

China continues to trade to fresh highs.  So many doomsayers on China yet sooooo much liquidity.  Have you missed owning the $PEK ETF that tracks local CSI300? 

chart9 

 FXI was our trade to BUY no the test lower in mid-May.  We expect will trade through $53.40 highs

 chart10

 …  underlying components may be better plays including $CHL

 chart11

 EM Equities trading better than expected considering the currency moves.  Part of this is China. Watching $42.00 on EEM as key level to sell if we break….

 chart12

Rates are moving lower almost as a flight to quality day of sorts…  UST yet to establish new trading range…. 

 chart13

 Bund yields showing their place as the one beacon of safety in Europe on a day where Greece is more noise than usual…

 chart14

 Therefore you see an actual “credit reaction” in the periphery we were NOT seeing when rates were moving higher across Europe and US last month….

 chart15

 We close with its still “May” and June is often no better than May or even worse when we are in a seasonal volatility warp.  Stay close to the screens next day or so….

 

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Today’s Emerging Money Audio Call has Been Released, Tuesday May 26th http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-tuesday-may-26th/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-tuesday-may-26th/#comments Tue, 26 May 2015 15:04:39 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=86435 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 26 - On the call today we address Global markets trading like it’s the start of May not the end of May as US players come back from a long holiday weekend to confront major FX volatility and fresh Greek noise that is a little louder than usual…

[...]]]>
Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 26 - On the call today we address Global markets trading like it’s the start of May not the end of May as US players come back from a long holiday weekend to confront major FX volatility and fresh Greek noise that is a little louder than usual…

Phone Audio

Volatility will continue to move higher if the velocity of these FX moves remains at hyper-speed.

EM needs to defend a couple key level on the $EEM.  We also point out that China may in fact be making the pain overall for EM much less than it should be with the macro backdrop playing out as it is…

So much for a gold breakout>  While we have not at all advocated a long gold position we did question whether you were seeing a bottoming process that would allow for investment in Gold miners.  What do we think now?

 

Tune into your account for more information.

 

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Brazil – Just When You Though The Water Starting to Be Safe http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/brazil-just-when-you-though-the-water-starting-to-be-safe-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/brazil-just-when-you-though-the-water-starting-to-be-safe-2/#comments Fri, 22 May 2015 15:52:12 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=86048 Price action and policy action are a concern for investors who have watched Brazil  (EWZ, quote) quietly become one of the better performing EM markets in 2015. After running 26% from Feb 2 on the Ibovespa despite a currency that sold off hard into March (2.60 to 3.30) but rallied back some, you [...]]]> Price action and policy action are a concern for investors who have watched Brazil  (EWZ, quote) quietly become one of the better performing EM markets in 2015. After running 26% from Feb 2 on the Ibovespa despite a currency that sold off hard into March (2.60 to 3.30) but rallied back some, you are +9%.

brazilVale (VALE, quote) and PetroBras (PBR, quote) gave you some reason to believe that the state was going to get their house in order and also stop killing the golden geese. But big rallies in both names have given way to big profit taking and no real committed crossover money. Vale move from $9.0 back to $6.50 was frightening. We traded this hard in late April and missed the final surge but got out with hefty gains. Overall, the last two weeks have been hard on this trade and we feel Dollar pressure, Commodity pressure and more importantly, domestic policy pressure will keep the index and currency under wraps in the near term.

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Today’s Emerging Money Audio Call has Been Released http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-13/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-13/#comments Fri, 22 May 2015 14:22:12 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=86025 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 22 - On the call today we address a hot CPI print in the US which is adding to the bid in the USD thus the weight in the EM currency complex.

How much is left in this move for the USD and the Euro and [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 22 - On the call today we address a hot CPI print in the US which is adding to the bid in the USD thus the weight in the EM currency complex.

Phone AudioHow much is left in this move for the USD and the Euro and what are other ways to play a stronger USD? What does Yellen mean today for global markets?

EM trading in a range that says we are beholden to trading the range. What EM ETFs are we selling or cautious on the near term price direction? 

China: SO many people saying so many conflicting things. What do we believe?  

Have a happy and safe Memorial Day Weekend!

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