Emerging Money http://emergingmoney.com Your Ticket Around The World Mon, 31 Aug 2015 16:47:09 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Emerging Markets – Some Perspective http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-markets-some-perspective/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-markets-some-perspective/#comments Mon, 31 Aug 2015 16:45:19 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=98631 While I will be quick to point out that I expect volatility to test last week's highs again before the end of October there is a decent argument that Emerging Markets may be getting close to a turn after 5 years of sputtering in the face of the Feds global liquidity fantasy camp.  “Capitulation” is [...]]]> While I will be quick to point out that I expect volatility to test last week's highs again before the end of October there is a decent argument that Emerging Markets may be getting close to a turn after 5 years of sputtering in the face of the Feds global liquidity fantasy camp.  “Capitulation” is a strong and overused word in the analysis of markets so I am cautious to brand anything a capitulation moment.  I will say categorically Ive spent nineteen years focused on global and Emerging Markets and some of the data from last week is right up there with some of the most extreme I have witnessed or can track.

Emerging marketsFor an asset class that has underperformed the SPX by 57% since the highs of April 2011 is should come as no surprise that Emerging Markets are oversold relative to the “developed equities”.  But analyzing Emerging Markets relative to itself is even more instructive.  As of the close on Monday Emerging Markets (EEM, quote) as measured by the EEM ETF hit a 9.3 9d RSI.  No time in the last decade, including August 2011 (9.8 RSI) and lows of the financial crisis did Emerging Markets trade this poorly.  In fact I went all the way back to the start of trading of ETFs to see where this ranked in the history of trading and see no other period as oversold.  If you track the MSCI Emerging Markets back twenty years, there is no period of ranks this oversold on an RSI.

The fund flow data is also very corroborative to a capitulation moment.  Last week Emerging Market outflows showed record outflows through Thursday of -$10.31Bn which was 2X the previous nasty week of -$5.88Bn (EFPR source) and the 2nd largest week out since 2000, the other being Jan 2008 when Emerging Markets were falling first into the financial crisis of 2008.  YTD Emerging Markets has seen record outlflows out and over the last 7 weeks we have seen 74% of that move.  Every GEM country had outflows last week and some had their highest outflows EVER (Indi, Taiwan, Philippines).

Here are some other stats (all sourced from EFPR and UBS) that are staggering:

  • -$48.5Bn outflows is the largest ever outflow from Emerging Markets on a YTD basis
    • this total equals 5.5% of total AUM in the asset class (7.1% was the peak in 2008)
  • GEM LO funds have seen 17 straight weeks of outflows
  • the -7.24Bn out of LO funds was the largest since Jan 2008
  • GEM ETFs had -3.07Bn out last week and are 43% of the total outflow this year

Buckle up but note that Emerging Market currencies have priced in a lot of the Feds move already, if not all of that move.  When I look at currencies like the Mexican Peso (-27% y/y) I see an asset class that has sold first and asked questions later.

The question you have to ask now is where do I see economies where China (FXI, quote) and the US Fed have been priced in?

Be sure to checkout Today's Audio Call in which we explore Emerging Markets as well as global markets in more depth

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Today’s Emerging Money Audio Call has Been Released http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-72/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-72/#comments Mon, 31 Aug 2015 16:38:58 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=98639 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call for August 31th has been released. 

Don’t miss out on another day of emerging market insight and trades from Tim Seymour.

Subscribe Now as Tim helps Emerging Money Subscribers navigate emerging market events around the globe while taking advantage of Tim’s 17 years of trading Emerging Markets.

Be first [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call for August 31th has been released. 

Don’t miss out on another day of emerging market insight and trades from Tim Seymour.

Subscribe Now as Tim helps Emerging Money Subscribers navigate emerging market events around the globe while taking advantage of Tim’s 17 years of trading Emerging Markets.

Be first to hear what Tim is trading as he lays out his strategies.

Subscribers log into your account and select menu item “Emerging Money Call” for today’s audio call and a full list of archives.

To Subscribe, to the full Emerging Daily Audio Call Click Here

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Thoughts About Gold Ahead of NFP http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/thoughts-about-gold-ahead-of-nfp/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/thoughts-about-gold-ahead-of-nfp/#comments Mon, 31 Aug 2015 14:14:13 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=98616 As we begin the final trading day of August and traders begin to focus ahead to the Friday U.S. non-Farm Payroll report gold traders are finding gold continue to remain in the same trading range for the past 4 sessions.

Gold (GLD, quote) traders and traders alike are looking [...]]]> As we begin the final trading day of August and traders begin to focus ahead to the Friday U.S. non-Farm Payroll report gold traders are finding gold continue to remain in the same trading range for the past 4 sessions.

TraderGold (GLD, quote) traders and traders alike are looking to the NFP report for hints to how the Fed will react at September’s meeting.

Will the Fed finally hike? That was the question on everyone’s mind during Friday’s Stanley Fischer, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman speech. He suggested that Fed has left the “door” open for the possibly of a rate hike at the September 16-17 meeting.

As with many of the speeches from the Fed you had to sift through the comments to attempt to determine what is really be said. My take was the comment surrounding a rate hike in September was "pretty strong" although he went on to say it was too soon to say.

If the Fed is truly going to be data dependent then Friday’s NFP will be a key factor in the Fed’s decision.

Right now economists consistent is for NFP will have increased to 220k new jobs an increase of 5k from July. Along with a .01 increase to 5.3% in the unemployment rate.

 

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Emerging Money Tracking The Global Volatility http://emergingmoney.com/emerging-markets-insight/emerging-money-tracking-the-global-volatility/ http://emergingmoney.com/emerging-markets-insight/emerging-money-tracking-the-global-volatility/#comments Sat, 29 Aug 2015 16:46:23 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=98470 Emerging Money’s Tim Seymour helped subscriber navigate one the most volatile weeks in history.

With this latest bout of volatility behind us the Emerging Money team wanted to share with all Emerging Money readers the historical week that was. Through the set of conference calls with Tim below, readers can listen as Tim [...]]]> Emerging Money’s Tim Seymour helped subscriber navigate one the most volatile weeks in history.

Emerging Money TradesWith this latest bout of volatility behind us the Emerging Money team wanted to share with all Emerging Money readers the historical week that was. Through the set of conference calls with Tim below, readers can listen as Tim layout how global markets got to the point they did and how the Emerging Money team navigated the roller coaster.

Don't navigate the Global Volatility Waters along every again. Subscribe Now as Tim helps Emerging Money Subscribers navigate Global and Emerging Market events around the globe by taking advantage of Tim’s 18 years of trading Global Emerging Markets.

To Subscribe, to the full Emerging Daily Audio Call Click Here

 

Sunday August 23, 2015

Emerging Money Sunday Night Special Audio Call - Welcome to a special Sunday night addition of the Emerging money daily audio call. On tonight's special call we review the ingredients for the current meltdown, we give a look at Asian markets opening this evening and our follow-through thoughts for the week at hand.

Monday August 24, 2015

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call August 24th - Black Monday is a term that has been coined so we will simply say last night and this morning’s trading action will be talked about for decades.

Disorderly moves in stocks and currencies tell you how “coiled” volatility was ( we were only at 13 on the VIX a few days ago ) and how so many trades are integrated across numerous asset classes.  EM assets are not the only ones gasping for air, but clearly they are leading the pack stoked by China risks.

How should you handle this volatility? Investors need to be wary of trying to trade their way through days like today and we outline core macro views and places where we thing sentiment has overtaken fundamentals.

On today’s call we update our view on trading action in the EM asset class and highlight local markets that could still have some significant selling to go despite overall index moves in USD terms showing great pain due to the currency fallout.

Wednesday August 26, 2015

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call August 26 - Global markets rally out of the gates after better price action in Asia last night off the devastating close in the US yesterday.he US Dollar has come back to the 200dma should be seen as a barometer for carry trade risk appetite.  ...For All markets expect more intraday volatility and massive day to day volatility over the next six weeks. The oil market is getting a boost from the M/A activity in the sector:  SLB buying Cameron should send a message that strong balance sheets will be long term players in this industry and that this is a great time to buy cheap assets. EM assets are for sale in the oil and resources sector and we expect more deals to come.

EM equities, currencies and even oil have better charts than DM equities over the last three sessions and illustrate where exhaustion levels(RSI momentum) were at historic lows, even for ever-volatile asset classes. TIF earnings tomorrow are a fresh look into the Chinese and EM consumers of luxury products who have been part of a multi-year growth spurt in this sector.  No company could be more impacted by a pullback from China than Tiffany. We expect the company to reiterate reasonable growth but be cautious on the region.

Thursday August 27

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call  August 27 - Global markets love the combination of China stability and easier Fed expectations and better growth data. EM outperforms for third consecutive day and we remain encouraged on the turn in sentiment.

We reiterate that despite the madness of Friday through Tuesday in the markets, the Fed will be looking past the volatility and more at the numbers. This is what they told us would be their approach to raising rates and we believe this is what they will do.   On today's call we follow the charts in EM and Oil through Mondays lows and draw some conclusions for investors trading through the next few days.

Friday August 28

Emerging Money Daily Audio Call August 28 - Markets are easing into the weekend and seemingly catching their breath after a record week. Oil and EM are not necessarily trading without conviction - oil to the upside and EM to the downside.

On the call we address the drivers for a sustainable oil rally and where EM may slip back into the malaise which has characterized the last few months of Fed and Dollar fears.

To Subscribe, to the full Emerging Daily Audio Call Click Here

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Today’s Emerging Money Audio Call has Been Released http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-71/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-71/#comments Fri, 28 Aug 2015 19:23:54 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=98431 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call for August 28th has been released. 

Don’t miss out on another day of emerging market insight and trades from Tim Seymour.

Subscribe Now as Tim helps Emerging Money Subscribers navigate emerging market events around the globe while taking advantage of Tim’s 17 years of trading Emerging Markets.

Be first [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call for August 28th has been released. 

Don’t miss out on another day of emerging market insight and trades from Tim Seymour.

Subscribe Now as Tim helps Emerging Money Subscribers navigate emerging market events around the globe while taking advantage of Tim’s 17 years of trading Emerging Markets.

Be first to hear what Tim is trading as he lays out his strategies.

Subscribers log into your account and select menu item “Emerging Money Call” for today’s audio call and a full list of archives.

To Subscribe, to the full Emerging Daily Audio Call Click Here

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Has Crude Oil Bottomed? http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/has-crude-oil-bottomed/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/has-crude-oil-bottomed/#comments Fri, 28 Aug 2015 15:24:32 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=98412 Commodities are maintaining their footing here on additional stimulus policies out of China (FXI, quote) for the second session in a row.

China’s Central Bank Finance Ministry as well as the Ministry of Human Resource and Security teamed up by expressing their intentions to stabilize the yuan by a [...]]]> Commodities are maintaining their footing here on additional stimulus policies out of China (FXI, quote) for the second session in a row.

Crude Oil 1China’s Central Bank Finance Ministry as well as the Ministry of Human Resource and Security teamed up by expressing their intentions to stabilize the yuan by a broad move stimulus policy of buying local stocks, pooling of pension funds and easing of China’s property bubble. All in all a two trillion yuan (or roughly 313+ billion in USD) assets purchased.

Add in the U.S. second quarter GDP of 3.7% and jobless claims 271k vs. 275k and we find commodity traders turning bullish. The U.S. economy seems to be recovering or at least the latest round of data is suggesting a recovery is at hand.

We can easily see the effects of the China stimulus and U.S. recovery play out in the oil space. Crude oil (USO, quote) which fell as low as $37.75 this week has turned around the last two sessions to above $44.60. If crude closes near these levels this will be crude oil’s biggest weekly move since last April.

Bottom Line: Many commodity traders are calling the $37.75 the bottom for crude oil. Although I do not believe crude oil and the oil space as whole to be out of the woods yet I do see the Monday’s low as a near-term bottom.

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Tim Talks About Russia Investing http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/tim-talks-about-russia-investing/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/tim-talks-about-russia-investing/#comments Thu, 27 Aug 2015 20:15:22 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=98299 Take a look at Tim's interview on Russia today and here are some Time's core points to remember about Russia and Russian stocks.

Russian politics are bad but they are Russian politics and work for Russia No political crisis like Turkey But have done nothing to steer economy away from reliance on oil/commodities No [...]]]>
Take a look at Tim's interview on Russia today and here are some Time's core points to remember about Russia and Russian stocks.

  • Russian politics are bad but they are Russian politics and work for Russia
    • No political crisis like Turkey
    • But have done nothing to steer economy away from reliance on oil/commodities
  • No external financing needs like the other current account deficit countries
  • Ruble has cushioned the economy and it has been more resilient on GDOP downside -2.5% v expectations of -5-6%
    • Import substitution
    • Better exports
    • Dollar seller of oil and commodities
  • Stocks:
    • Always optically cheap
    • Russian oil companies never made money at 100$ oil and were taxed
    • They never promised much on dividends – so they can keep them and their dividend yields are some of the best in oil space globally and are defendable
      • LKOD interesting with 7% div yield
      • Norilsk pays high divs, buys back stock and has depreciated cost base which is more than other global diversified can say trade has worked relative value
    • MBT: consumer consumption and chunky dividend
    • QIWI: electronic payments; stock is play on consumer and been resilient in down market
    • YNDX: “Google” of Russia who is losing some market share but still world class technology and reasonable growth a relatively cheap valuation to peers

 

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Today’s Emerging Money Audio Call has Been Released http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-70/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-70/#comments Thu, 27 Aug 2015 15:59:44 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=98273 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call for August 27th has been released. 

Don’t miss out on another day of emerging market insight and trades from Tim Seymour.

Subscribe Now as Tim helps Emerging Money Subscribers navigate emerging market events around the globe while taking advantage of Tim’s 17 years of trading Emerging Markets.

Be first [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call for August 27th has been released. 

Don’t miss out on another day of emerging market insight and trades from Tim Seymour.

Subscribe Now as Tim helps Emerging Money Subscribers navigate emerging market events around the globe while taking advantage of Tim’s 17 years of trading Emerging Markets.

Be first to hear what Tim is trading as he lays out his strategies.

Subscribers log into your account and select menu item “Emerging Money Call” for today’s audio call and a full list of archives.

To Subscribe, to the full Emerging Daily Audio Call Click Here

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Your First Look For Thursday, August 27 http://emergingmoney.com/tim-seymour/your-first-look-for-thursday-august-27/ http://emergingmoney.com/tim-seymour/your-first-look-for-thursday-august-27/#comments Thu, 27 Aug 2015 13:08:00 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=98251 The "Fast Money" traders discussed what there first look will be this morning.

 

The "Fast Money" traders discussed what they were watching — following Wednesday's historical stock market rebound.

Tim Seymour picked currencies.

Steve Grasso highlighted S&P 500 technicals.

Brian Kelly put the dollar on his watch list.

Guy Adami was [...]]]>

The "Fast Money" traders discussed what there first look will be this morning.

 

The "Fast Money" traders discussed what they were watching — following Wednesday's historical stock market rebound.

Tim Seymour picked currencies.

Steve Grasso highlighted S&P 500 technicals.

Brian Kelly put the dollar on his watch list.

Guy Adami was looking at bonds.

 

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Today’s Emerging Money Audio Call has Been Released http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-69/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-69/#comments Wed, 26 Aug 2015 18:05:24 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=98131 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call for August 26th has been released. 

Don’t miss out on another day of emerging market insight and trades from Tim Seymour.

Subscribe Now as Tim helps Emerging Money Subscribers navigate emerging market events around the globe while taking advantage of Tim’s 17 years of trading Emerging Markets.

Be first [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call for August 26th has been released. 

Don’t miss out on another day of emerging market insight and trades from Tim Seymour.

Subscribe Now as Tim helps Emerging Money Subscribers navigate emerging market events around the globe while taking advantage of Tim’s 17 years of trading Emerging Markets.

Be first to hear what Tim is trading as he lays out his strategies.

Subscribers log into your account and select menu item “Emerging Money Call” for today’s audio call and a full list of archives.

To Subscribe, to the full Emerging Daily Audio Call Click Here

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