Emerging Money http://emergingmoney.com Your Ticket Around The World Fri, 27 May 2016 19:11:17 +0000 en hourly 1 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call – May 27 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-may-27-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-may-27-2/#respond Fri, 27 May 2016 19:09:44 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=129866 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call - May 27 - Post Yellen comments markets take on a little more anxiety but barely budget other than the Dollar which is pushing the Euro and other FX around. 

This just may be the calm before a challenging month settles in with OPEC, Brexit and other ad hoc [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call - May 27 - Post Yellen comments markets take on a little more anxiety but barely budget other than the Dollar which is pushing the Euro and other FX around. 

Phone AudioThis just may be the calm before a challenging month settles in with OPEC, Brexit and other ad hoc moments like China policy and Greek refi coming.

We discuss what’s not in the price and we set up our piece on fund flows and what they mean for EM positioning.

Have a great memorial Day weekend!

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EM Weightings By Country: Where We Would Challenge These Views http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/em-weightings-by-country-where-we-would-challenge-these-views-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/em-weightings-by-country-where-we-would-challenge-these-views-2/#respond Fri, 27 May 2016 18:10:25 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=129861 Using a chart provided by UBS and taken from data from EFPR who compiles an amazing amount of information on fund flows within the investment community and particularly insightful on EM, we want to assess where the opportunities for rotation, beating the index, and where we think investors are offsides. 

Ultimately this is about yesterday’s [...]]]> Using a chart provided by UBS and taken from data from EFPR who compiles an amazing amount of information on fund flows within the investment community and particularly insightful on EM, we want to assess where the opportunities for rotation, beating the index, and where we think investors are offsides. 

Emerging marketsUltimately this is about yesterday’s trade versus tomorrows trade.  Everyone knows that fund flow data is a lagging indicator, much like another similar analysis that takes place with 13F filings of major funds to see what they hold or sold.  This exercise merely tells you where investors were positioned at a moment in time.  Even if this data is one day later there is no sense of what flows have happened in between.  With all of that as a caveat, here is the chart:

Country Weighting

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 26 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-may-26-3/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-may-26-3/#respond Thu, 26 May 2016 20:18:32 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=129702 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 26 - On the call today we discuss Fed risks, what is priced in and what the range trades are.

Yellen is on the docket tomorrow after a series of Fed Governors have not changed the more hawkish tone, meanwhile the Dollar running out of steam gives us confidence [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 26 - On the call today we discuss Fed risks, what is priced in and what the range trades are.

Phone AudioYellen is on the docket tomorrow after a series of Fed Governors have not changed the more hawkish tone, meanwhile the Dollar running out of steam gives us confidence in the short term tactical trades around EM and resources.

China headlines in the US are rarely treated in a rational way especially when they are attached to meg-cap names like BIDU and Alibaba.

The latest shock from the SEC related headlines investigating BABA are another opportunity for investors.  What do we mean?

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Crucial Time for Gold: Opportune Time For Miners? http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/crucial-time-for-gold-opportune-time-for-miners-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/crucial-time-for-gold-opportune-time-for-miners-2/#respond Wed, 25 May 2016 15:51:39 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=129518 Gold has suffered a swift 5.5% move in 7 sessions on the back of the Fed and some signs of more active policy.  The Dollar therefore has rallied 4% on the DXY and Gold therefore gets killed right?

Yes and no.  Gold has been beaten down but the rest of the inverse Dollar [...]]]> Gold has suffered a swift 5.5% move in 7 sessions on the back of the Fed and some signs of more active policy.  The Dollar therefore has rallied 4% on the DXY and Gold therefore gets killed right?

Yes and no.  Gold has been beaten down but the rest of the inverse Dollar trades have hunt in and even rallied a bit ( see Oil, EM, CRB).

Chart on Gold shows $1220 as the area we traded to this AM and must hold or $1100 is the next big figure not $1300.

The miners are a beta play on Gold $ABX is the generic play on the miners.   ABX has pulled back 16% in 6 sessions to trade near $16.00-$16.25...

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European Shares: What Was Tail Risk is Becoming Tailwind http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/european-shares-what-was-tail-risk-is-becoming-tailwind-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/european-shares-what-was-tail-risk-is-becoming-tailwind-2/#respond Wed, 25 May 2016 15:44:26 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=129511 Biggest beneficiary of waning Brexit fear is Europe.  IFO today in Germany better than expected and overall sentiment still on defensive despite ECB ready to roll out more Euros.

Watch the chart in $DB which has to be ripping the heart out of shorts here.

Remove China currency fears ( recent statements of stability [...]]]> Biggest beneficiary of waning Brexit fear is Europe.  IFO today in Germany better than expected and overall sentiment still on defensive despite ECB ready to roll out more Euros.

Watch the chart in $DB which has to be ripping the heart out of shorts here.

Remove China currency fears ( recent statements of stability in exchange rate) and Brexit from DB and you have a stock which is still heavily shorted and risk to upside.

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 24 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-may-24-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-may-24-2/#respond Tue, 24 May 2016 19:32:25 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=129365 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 24 - Markets rallying with Brexit fears waning and China’s devalues fears looking like we never had anything to fear. 

We discuss these dynamics which might turn fear of June into just the opposite.

How the breakdown of correlation between Oil and the USD…  what can we then [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 24 - Markets rallying with Brexit fears waning and China’s devalues fears looking like we never had anything to fear. 

Phone AudioWe discuss these dynamics which might turn fear of June into just the opposite.

How the breakdown of correlation between Oil and the USD…  what can we then impute from this upon EM?

We’ve got a vie won oil demand and it might now surprise you but it will definitely get some attention.

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Trading Post-Fed Scare… http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/trading-post-fed-scare-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/trading-post-fed-scare-2/#respond Fri, 20 May 2016 18:09:48 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=128971 Was this a Fed scare or just “getting on with it”, or neither?  The fed did not change the path that existed for their next policy move as communicated to us after the April meeting. 

So what about all the concerns for everything that has been so inversely correlated to the Dollar which was rallying [...]]]> Was this a Fed scare or just “getting on with it”, or neither?  The fed did not change the path that existed for their next policy move as communicated to us after the April meeting. 

So what about all the concerns for everything that has been so inversely correlated to the Dollar which was rallying into the Fed Minutes and got a boost from the release?

As we wrestle with risk assets post Wednesday’s Fed minutes we clearly as looking to the Dollar to determine whether changing technicals to the downside can be overcome by a potentially more hawkish Fed or whether the downward sloping 200dma and pressure from reflation trades are starting to wear down this once consensus trade gone bad.

DXY

While 96 looks to be a place where the USD will fail, it’s clear that 16.00 – 17.00 is where the VIX has been failing and despite a surge on Wednesday volatility is back lower again.  The question to ask is whether the VIX is slowly making higher highs each time before it runs out of gas.  We are headed into some key events in June with the NFP release on Friday 3rd, the Fed meeting, Brexit and the next round of Chinese data.  We still believe owning volatility at these levels is not only prudent but we are starting to see the levee break…slowly.

vix

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 20 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-may-20-3/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-may-20-3/#respond Fri, 20 May 2016 17:57:27 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=128953 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 20  - On the call today we assess the week ahead as a set up for a true test of the market’s resolve around the Fed and not whetherthe they hike in June or not but the actual impact that 25bps should have on the Dollar and the markets [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 20  - On the call today we assess the week ahead as a set up for a true test of the market’s resolve around the Fed and not whetherPhone Audiothe they hike in June or not but the actual impact that 25bps should have on the Dollar and the markets at this point of the market cycle.

This is a cycle that has already traded some of these prospects with extreme volatility and we may be surprised to see some more successful engineering of this next phase.

Have a great weekend.

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 19 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-may-19-3/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-may-19-3/#respond Thu, 19 May 2016 13:48:48 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=128733 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 19 - The day after the Fed Minutes release took market expectations well beyond where they were the day before despite this view from the Fed being significantly lagging and the content of the message being the same as the Fed statement in April.

Now what…do you fade weak [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call May 19 - The day after the Fed Minutes release took market expectations well beyond where they were the day before despite this view Phone Audiofrom the Fed being significantly lagging and the content of the message being the same as the Fed statement in April.

Now what…do you fade weak dollar trades thus commodities, EM, and cyclicals?  Be careful..

On todays call we frame our entire investment thesis for rates, EM, and commodities and give you our rules of the road.

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Emerging Market Chart Review http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-market-chart-review-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-market-chart-review-2/#respond Wed, 18 May 2016 16:57:51 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=128580 Rates higher as we wait for Fed minutes.  Clearly the short end of the US curve is more fearful of the Fed than the long end. 

The 2yr note has moved 16bps off the bottom.  Another break here takes us [...]]]> Rates higher as we wait for Fed minutes.  Clearly the short end of the US curve is more fearful of the Fed than the long end. 

The 2yr note has moved 16bps off the bottom.  Another break here takes us to challenge the level that is where we were when the Fed was primed and ready to roll in March ( or so we thought).

chart1

US banks ripping at the curve gets some support from this Fed expectation.  US banks are cheap if you believe historical earnings multiples.  But are they going to earn out? The best combination of diversified fee income, and balance sheet is clearly $JPM, meanwhile if credit quality moves sideways and the economy ticks up in second and third quarters as we expect you can be sure that banks can outperform.  Right now what people forget is that banks might be rallying from the improved economic conditions that the Fed is ready to acknowledge.


The US Dollar has moved quietly from very oversold to comfortably in a range that says more Fed.  The DXY is waiting on Fed minutes but think we are still playing in a range that we think doesn’t break higher but could break lower…still hasn’t broken above the 50dma as we write.  Watch: Yuan near 2m lows and every move higher in the USD puts more pressure on China to devalue.  Markets at least will take this view…

chart2

Aussie near a bounce but how much bounce is the question after 29 days and almost 7% lower….72 has proven to be major point for the AUD.  It was clear the Aussie needed to come back to earth after a 14.5% sure off the bottom. 

 

chart3

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