Emerging Money http://emergingmoney.com Your Ticket Around The World Wed, 01 Jul 2015 16:29:15 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Today’s Emerging Money Audio Call has Been Released http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-34/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-34/#comments Wed, 01 Jul 2015 16:24:13 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=91280 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call July 1 - On today’s call we open the quarter with the impossible task of looking past Greece and talking about fundamentals and bottom up investing. 

So with that we give you our view on where Tsipras and Greece are positioned and we remind you where we [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call July 1 - On today’s call we open the quarter with the impossible task of looking past Greece and talking about fundamentals and bottom up investing. 

Phone AudioSo with that we give you our view on where Tsipras and Greece are positioned and we remind you where we think the market overall is positioned on Greece.  China was weaker last night and this is weighing on EM equities who are underperforming.  China’s under performance is NOT macro related and the PMI releases were in our view “good enough”.  China remains in a policy loosening mode and will continue to bring down long real rates via RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. 

We review 5d performance across EM countries and discuss prospects for how EM trades in a world where the Fed follows course ( to tighten) and the Dollar picks up steam.

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Japan’s companies are turning more optimistic, Tankan shows http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/japans-companies-are-turning-more-optimistic-tankan-shows/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/japans-companies-are-turning-more-optimistic-tankan-shows/#comments Wed, 01 Jul 2015 12:35:29 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=91251 Source CNBC.Com's Leslie Shaffer  -  The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Tankan survey showed the country's large manufacturers are more optimistic than expected, with the index hitting its highest level since March 2014, before a sales tax hike took effect.

"It progressively shows the Japanese economy is improving. Expectations are rising. Looking at the [...]]]> Source CNBC.Com's Leslie Shaffer  -  The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Tankan survey showed the country's large manufacturers are more optimistic than expected, with the index hitting its highest level since March 2014, before a sales tax hike took effect.

japan_machinery"It progressively shows the Japanese economy is improving. Expectations are rising. Looking at the rest of the world, Japan doesn't look that bad," Peter Boardman, managing director at Tradewinds, told CNBC. "Sentiment within Japan is quite strong."

Japan's large manufacturers' index for June came in at positive 15, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a positive 12. For the September figures, the index was forecast at positive 16, compared with a Reuters poll forecast for positive 12. The tankan measures corporate sentiment by subtracting the number of companies who say business conditions are negative from those that say they are positive.

The survey showed big companies expect capex for the 2015-16 fiscal year will rise 9.3 percent, compared with a Reuters poll forecast for 5.2 percent. That's the biggest rise since 2006. But small firms expect capex to fall 15.7 percent over the period, although that came in better than a Reuters poll forecast for a 16.3 percent fall.

Boardman wasn't the only one who read the data bullishly.

"You're finally seeing a deleveraging process, a very long one, for the balance sheets for a lot of even the non-financials in Japan, coming to an end, which means capital allocations back to investors [and] better earnings momentum than just about anywhere in the world," Tim Seymour, chief investment officer at Triogem Asset Management, told CNBC.

But some remained pessimistic on the outlook.

"Firms reliably turn more optimistic in the second quarter, so we wouldn't read much too into this improvement. What's more, these 'projections' do in fact lag actual capital expenditure," Marcel Thieliant, a Japan economist at Capital Economics, said in a note Wednesday. "We already have plenty of activity data for April and May, which tend to provide more reliable indications about the pace of expansion (or contraction) of Japan's economy than the Tankan. On balance, these figures suggest that the economy contracted last quarter."

Recent economic data from Japan has painted a mixed picture.

Japan's policymakers have struggled to kick start the economy after decades of deflation, with the Bank of Japan launching a massive easing program in 2013 as part of "Abenomics," Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's plan to return the country to growth.

But after a consumption tax hike to 8 percent from 5 percent in April of 2014, the economy got clobbered when consumers stopped spending, forcing the government to postpone a second sales tax initially due this October.

Recent economic data have been mixed. Earlier this week, data showed industrial output fell 2.2 percent on month in May, worse than a Reuters poll forecast for a 0.8 percent decline. That spurred the government to say industrial production is stagnating and cut its forecast, according to Reuters.

But Japan's consumers appear to be stepping up to the plate, with retail sales rising 3.0 percent on year in May, beating a forecast for a 2.3 percent rise from a Reuters poll. That's consistent with data released last week showing household expenditures climbed more than expected in May.

Some of the fillip may be coming from incoming tourists.

"With a weaker yen, you’re seeing tourists from around the world coming to Japan," Tradewinds' Boardman told CNBC. "You had a large increase in inbound Chinese tourists and tourists in general in Japan, which has driven up a lot of retail sales."

—By CNBC.Com's Leslie Shaffer; Follow her on Twitter @LeslieShaffer1

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Today’s Emerging Money Audio Call has Been Released http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-33/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-33/#comments Tue, 30 Jun 2015 16:43:45 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=91123 Emerging Money Audio Call June 30 - Quarter end for equites is a sideshow to Greece and the day after markets plunged around the world.  The first -2% move in the SPX in over 120 days yesterday  being put into perspective today but not major fall in volatility. 

Headlines remain unclear out of [...]]]> Emerging Money Audio Call June 30 - Quarter end for equites is a sideshow to Greece and the day after markets plunged around the world.  The first -2% move in the SPX in over 120 days yesterday  being put into perspective today but not major fall in volatility. 

Phone AudioHeadlines remain unclear out of Greece.  China rallied hard last night and while we would not argue that Chinese valuations offer value we do think that the liquidity dynamics of the local market will not change in the immediate future. 

We think trading the local index will be a rough ride but we would not be positioning our global portfolio on the back of China volatility and fears of a bursting equity bubble.   See our note today on the site regarding policy moves and relationship to the equity markets.

Dollar rallying today makes more sense than selling off yesterday did.  We refresh our views on trading macro currency and rates markets.

EM bounces off the $39.00 level on the $EEM and has shown an outperforming bent in the last three sessions after a disappointing run of underperformance in the previous 6 weeks.

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Oh Yeah, What About China… http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/oh-yeah-what-about-china-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/oh-yeah-what-about-china-2/#comments Tue, 30 Jun 2015 14:21:57 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=91100 Greece has kept China off the front page I guess...  Its interesting but wrong to characterize China in the same risk camp as Greece however. 

Puerto Rico also in the mix gave yesterday a perfect storm on the vol front (+32%) for the broader market to contemplate.  The reality is however that China was [...]]]> Greece has kept China off the front page I guess...  Its interesting but wrong to characterize China in the same risk camp as Greece however. 

Puerto Rico also in the mix gave yesterday a perfect storm on the vol front (+32%) for the broader market to contemplate.  The reality is however that China was no more or less a factor in the risk assessment yesterday despite the fact the market locally did not respond to the RRR and interest rate cuts enacted over the weekend.

China (FXI, quote) is rallied hard last night and closed on the highs at key 4470 level.  Regaining the 4500 level will be important for the market.  See the CSI300 local index over the three months:

China A Shares:  Back to Key level

China A Shares: Back to Key level

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Greece – Now What? http://emergingmoney.com/emerging-markets-insight/greece-now-what/ http://emergingmoney.com/emerging-markets-insight/greece-now-what/#comments Tue, 30 Jun 2015 14:20:27 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=91093

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See how Tim is playing the Greece Crisis.

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Today’s Emerging Money Audio Call has Been Released http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-15/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/todays-emerging-money-audio-call-has-been-released-15/#comments Mon, 29 Jun 2015 19:59:54 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=90955 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 29 - On the call today we go through our assessment of asset classes and their reaction to the Greece news of the weekend.

How do you trade the currencies?  Clearly with the Euro rallying into the afternoon – many unclear if this is Euro positive or [...]]]> Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 29 - On the call today we go through our assessment of asset classes and their reaction to the Greece news of the weekend.

Phone AudioHow do you trade the currencies?  Clearly with the Euro rallying into the afternoon – many unclear if this is Euro positive or negative.

We hold to a Euro negative view but encourage investors to also watch USD/YEN for clues on risk appetite.

EM struggles but in line with global markets despite the China RRR cut. 

EM currencies also better bid than expected as the USD weakens in the afternoon providing some support.

Talk to you soon

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Market Update – China Stimulus http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/market-update-china-stimulus/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/market-update-china-stimulus/#comments Mon, 29 Jun 2015 15:45:17 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=90921 Despite the China’s Central Bank cutting Requirement Reserve Ratio (RRR) along with the amount banks are required to hold in reserves, China’s Shenzhen dropped 5.78% to 13,588.27.

The ChiNext Index dropped even harder to 2,689.68 or 7.90%. The ChiNext is a tech heavy index similar to the U.S. NASDAQ 100 Index.

I’m using [...]]]> Despite the China’s Central Bank cutting Requirement Reserve Ratio (RRR) along with the amount banks are required to hold in reserves, China’s Shenzhen dropped 5.78% to 13,588.27.

14_CHINAMThe ChiNext Index dropped even harder to 2,689.68 or 7.90%. The ChiNext is a tech heavy index similar to the U.S. NASDAQ 100 Index.

I’m using the drop to being looking at strong China tech names such BABA (quote), BIDU (quote) and YOKU (quote).

I want to be flexible and define may risk by using options as either a proxy or protection in names I already have positions in.

 

 

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Greece Update: Euro Lower, US 10yr Yields Lower; DXY Breaks 96.00; You Can Still Buy Vol http://emergingmoney.com/market-updates/greece-update-euro-lower-us-10yr-yields-lower-dxy-breaks-96-00-you-can-still-buy-vol-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/market-updates/greece-update-euro-lower-us-10yr-yields-lower-dxy-breaks-96-00-you-can-still-buy-vol-2/#comments Mon, 29 Jun 2015 03:09:03 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=90839 As of Sunday night writing the following points summarize where we are:

Talks breakdown Greece's Tsipras calls for a July 5th referendum vote enraging EU creditors The ECB freezes the emergency funding lifeline Greece will default on their E1.6Bn IMF payment due Greece closes its markets this week Greece closes banks and imposes capital controls until [...]]]>
As of Sunday night writing the following points summarize where we are:

  • Talks breakdown
  • Greece's Tsipras calls for a July 5th referendum vote enraging EU creditors
  • The ECB freezes the emergency funding lifeline
  • Greece will default on their E1.6Bn IMF payment due
  • Greece closes its markets this week
  • Greece closes banks and imposes capital controls until July 5th referendum  

 

 

Tune into your account for how to trade...

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4 Tech Stocks to Watch http://emergingmoney.com/emerging-markets-insight/4-tech-stocks-to-watch/ http://emergingmoney.com/emerging-markets-insight/4-tech-stocks-to-watch/#comments Sat, 27 Jun 2015 15:23:32 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=90749 Checkout Tim's tech stock from the Fast Money Show.

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Checkout Tim's tech stock from the Fast Money Show.

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Second Half Playbook http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/second-half-playbook/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/second-half-playbook/#comments Sat, 27 Jun 2015 14:15:42 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=90742 Checkout how Tim is playing the second of the year in small cap stocks.

 

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Checkout how Tim is playing the second of the year in small cap stocks.

 

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