Emerging Money http://emergingmoney.com Your Ticket Around The World Mon, 26 Sep 2016 15:35:29 +0000 en hourly 1 36036841 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 26 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-26-3/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-26-3/#respond Mon, 26 Sep 2016 15:35:29 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=144306 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 26 - The week ahead for markets is potentially all tied into tonight although at this point the expectations for tonight to bring substantial volatility is already taking place. 

Could this be it?  Also watching more housing data this week.

OPEC meeting today support Brent.

We give you [...]

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 26 - The week ahead for markets is potentially all tied into tonight although at this point the expectations for tonight to bring substantial volatility is already taking place. 

Phone AudioCould this be it?  Also watching more housing data this week.

OPEC meeting today support Brent.

We give you our silver lining playbook for an announcement.

Day traders vs long term investors.  We have thoughts on both.

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 23 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-23-4/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-23-4/#respond Fri, 23 Sep 2016 18:06:07 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=144109 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 23 On the call today we recap the Fed and try to balance what are clearly escalating concerns about Fed credibility and how markets are going to react as long as they know there remains a CB put.

Oil is falling on expectations of very little in Algiers next [...]

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 23 On the call today we recap the Fed and try to balance what are clearly escalating concerns about Fed credibility and how markets are going to react as long as they know there remains a CB put.

Phone AudioOil is falling on expectations of very little in Algiers next week but what could we have really expected?

How big is Mondays presidential debate in the US?  We are sure it will be a major news event but how about market impact?

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 21 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-21-3/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-21-3/#respond Wed, 21 Sep 2016 14:49:05 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=143827 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 21 - We are halfway through the CB doubleheader with a victory for cyclicality in the first game.

If anything we see the BOJ having sent implicit tightening messages even if this is not what they wanted to do.  Rates are in play and so is the Dollar.

JGB [...]

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 21 - We are halfway through the CB doubleheader with a victory for cyclicality in the first game.

Phone AudioIf anything we see the BOJ having sent implicit tightening messages even if this is not what they wanted to do.  Rates are in play and so is the Dollar.

JGB yields will be positive before too long.

Make no mistake that the $FDX results after the bell yesterday are an important part of the cyclical rotation story for markets and may tell the tale that other transports and shippers will tell:  they have some pricing power and see end demand improving.

Fed on deck at 2pm will clearly have a say over what direction the market closes today but positioning seems balanced going in and volatility is falling right now.

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 20 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-20-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-20-2/#respond Tue, 20 Sep 2016 17:54:38 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=143701 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 20 - On the call today we give you our obligatory preview of the BOJ/Fed doubleheader. 

Even for baseball fanatics like me, a double header is a true test in endurance and love of the game.

A double central bank policy announcement days at this stage of the [...]

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 20 - On the call today we give you our obligatory preview of the BOJ/Fed doubleheader. 

Phone AudioEven for baseball fanatics like me, a double header is a true test in endurance and love of the game.

A double central bank policy announcement days at this stage of the “season” is tough.

For investors who have been living one big central bank nightmare for 5 years it may be time for the season to end.

Maybe this event(these events) will truly be a seminal moment in that we are never more aware of the limitations of policy to effect the economic impact desired.  Japan holds the key right now to policy approach changes. They may blink first although we doubt it…

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 19 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-19-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-19-2/#respond Mon, 19 Sep 2016 15:16:36 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=143549 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call  September 19 - On the call today we preview a busy policy week headlined by the BOJ and the Fed. 

Once again we reiterate that the BOJ will have more impact on the market this week than the Fed.

Politics in Europe continue to be worth watching for more [...]

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call  September 19 - On the call today we preview a busy policy week headlined by the BOJ and the Fed. 

Phone AudioOnce again we reiterate that the BOJ will have more impact on the market this week than the Fed.

Politics in Europe continue to be worth watching for more volatility ahead.  Germany’s election cycle is worsening for pro-EU forces.

US banks under fire but will be an opportunity when the regulatory opportunism wanes only a bit.  Stay close to the action fo the best quality/valuation stories.

EM remains to buy into YE but you will get your shot and don’t need to chase on up days.

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 16 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-16-3/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-16-3/#respond Fri, 16 Sep 2016 16:31:04 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=143307 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 16 - Fed next week remains the obvious headline but below the surface we are watching DB and WFC as regulators seem to be stealing the thunder from the Fed.

That may be a good thing for now but clearly tells you why business investment trends are terrible and [...]

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 16 - Fed next week remains the obvious headline but below the surface we are watching DB and WFC as regulators seem to be stealing the thunder from the Fed.

Phone AudioThat may be a good thing for now but clearly tells you why business investment trends are terrible and why we don’t see a breakout from below trend growth.

To be clear we also have not been calling for recession or mass market hysteria

Next week will be a function of the mixed signals we go this week in macro around the world.

We review the week and give our outlook for the Fed.

Have a great weekend.

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Emerging Money Daily Audio September 15 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-september-15-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-september-15-2/#respond Thu, 15 Sep 2016 15:44:32 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=143172 Emerging Money Daily Audio September 15  - Cross asset correlations continue to be part of every investor’s routine as we review sovereign bonds in Europe and Japan

before checking out FX, then begin to look bottom up at equities and evaluate portfolio positioning.

The reality is that we are in the middle of elevated [...]

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Emerging Money Daily Audio September 15  - Cross asset correlations continue to be part of every investor’s routine as we review sovereign bonds in Europe and Japan

Phone Audiobefore checking out FX, then begin to look bottom up at equities and evaluate portfolio positioning.

The reality is that we are in the middle of elevated uncertainty on politics, rates, earnings and where valuations should be in the middle of all of this.

Today’s call drops some perspective into the US data releases today that were less than stellar.

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Emerging Daily Audio Call May September 14 http://emergingmoney.com/audio/emerging-daily-audio-call-may-september-14/ http://emergingmoney.com/audio/emerging-daily-audio-call-may-september-14/#respond Wed, 14 Sep 2016 15:04:13 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=143020 Emerging Daily Audio Call May September 14 - ON the call today we discuss the cross currents of asset classes with bond yields moving higher but the source of this move is not what you think.

We explain.

Industrial stocks are arguably the place to be if rates are rising as the valuations are [...]

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Emerging Daily Audio Call May September 14 - ON the call today we discuss the cross currents of asset classes with bond yields moving higher but the source of this move is not what you think.

Phone AudioWe explain.

Industrial stocks are arguably the place to be if rates are rising as the valuations are low and in the case of airlines (JETS, quote), transports and even some global manufacturers there is an argument to be made they are seeing more pricing power.

September will continue to be challenging and you must either have the stomach and the portfolio to not over trade or you must be tactical and ready to buy weakness which means you must create (or have already created) room in your portfolio. Where would we be watching?

Have you refi’d your mortgage yet and paid down more expensive debt? Get on it!

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This Is The Most Important Chart For Markets http://emergingmoney.com/asia/important-chart-markets-2/ http://emergingmoney.com/asia/important-chart-markets-2/#respond Wed, 14 Sep 2016 14:53:26 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=143013 For effectively 5 years Japans 10year benchmark has traded below the 200dma taking with it yields around the world. Japanese institutional investors are one of the biggest groups of investors who influence the flow of large insurance, pension, endowment and municipal allocations.

JGB yields with exception of four small periods during this 5 year run [...]

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For effectively 5 years Japans 10year benchmark has traded below the 200dma taking with it yields around the world. Japanese institutional investors are one of the biggest groups of investors who influence the flow of large insurance, pension, endowment and municipal allocations.

bond-japanJGB yields with exception of four small periods during this 5 year run where they challenged a break higher have been a function of seemingly endless attempts by the BOJ to avert deflation. Today we are at another test of the 200dma and with that also a potential break above negative yields. With all the cross currents of asset classes at work here, we would argue the stage is set for a potential turning point on JGBs which will drive ALL markets globally.

We can wax on about correlations of asset classes but bottom line is that bonds have been pushing everything else around, including currencies, equities and commodities. Deflationary forces and attempts to fix them have forced Fed, BOJ, and the ECB into excessive action. The Fed arguably has altered policy by not exiting “EMERGENCY” status because of Japan (EWJ, quote). Arguably Deflationary forces and the actions of CBs put pressure downward on oil (USO, quote) that wasn’t just excess supply. The ECB exacerbated this move in January 2015 with their deepest plunge into quantitative easing which forced the USD (UUP, quote) higher and this is what really killed oil, but again I digress.

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 13 http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-13/ http://emergingmoney.com/analysis/emerging-money-daily-audio-call-september-13/#respond Tue, 13 Sep 2016 15:47:48 +0000 http://emergingmoney.com/?p=142863 Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 13 - Volatility spikes are not usually one day events and the market has picked up where it left off on Friday with stocks under pressure from higher rates...as they should be.

A higher volatility environment is upon us for the near future. This will also affect how investors [...]

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Emerging Money Daily Audio Call September 13 - Volatility spikes are not usually one day events and the market has picked up where it left off Phone Audioon Friday with stocks under pressure from higher rates...as they should be.

A higher volatility environment is upon us for the near future. This will also affect how investors trade stocks.

We devote significant space on today’s call to discuss the cross currents of policy, and the market dictating policy.

In a rising rate environment there are sectors that are benefiting from higher pricing and rates. We explain…

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