Emerging Money Daily Audio Call March 26 – On the call today I report live from the Engage conference in Detroit where one of the Fed governors has given fresh thoughts on how the Fed will deal with dollar strength.
Our view is that investors are not only ignoring data that has changed for the better across the Continent, but that positioning is also leading to more follow through from a 4% move that has already taken place in the Euro off the lows.
As the Fed gathers this morning a quick look at the DXY, now two days into a pause higher, tells me there could be more of a trade here that is more than just two days.
We are now within 5% of the critical 200 level on the CRB Index which has been a defining level historically for all that is bulky, soft, metal, and oily/gassy.
Today is an extraordinary day for macro driven by the U.S. Payroll number that many thought could be weaker based on recent weather conditions.
Emerging Money Daily Audio Call March 5 – On today’s call we highlight outperformance of Europe and a rebound in global markets today despite Dollars strength that’s pushing EM currencies to the brink.
Get a jump start on this week’s trading with Tim’s thoughts on inflation and how to play it.
Do I think Inflation is Rising?
I have to say I do. Last week the Fed told us with a dovish voice that they could still see liftoff when you don’t expect it. I think a lot of folks don’t expect it. Last week CPI data was more than a little hot. Higher oil prices reverse what was the match that lit latest round of CB easing and QE measures. Falling oil really put the wind at the EBC’s back.
Recapping a couple macro themes from today that are part of larger macro views we have.
Today’s headlines on Greece are NOT in the market’s volatility range or where equities should feel comfortable at this level.