We continue to view the Dollar as a range trade that can be played tactically until we see a fundamental change in Fed policy towards raising rates and the European Central bank add more extraordinary measures.
Emerging markets are down about 90 basis points in line with the sentiment on China. China sentiment deteriorated rapidly over the weekend sending the Shanghai below the sentimental levels of 2000. Tune in as I review the Yuan, commodities and economic data. Find out how we are trading the emerging markets.
Good Morning on this final trading day of the week. Key China data out overnight. Tune in to get my wrap up on China and China’s Yuan, including updates on Ukraine and Russia.
Be clear, the economic impact of Ukraine crisis is not a fundamental driver for the Ruble. Ukraine sentiment has been responsible for the 75-100bps of weakness but ultimately the Russian economy and CBR policy are what is driving the weakening trend.
The pain trade in the Sochi Olympics has been pulling for the Russian hockey team (who was eliminated today. As Dick Enberg would say “Oh my!”) but the pain trade in the currency markets may in fact be the Russian Ruble which today has fallen to all-time lows against the Euro and dancing near worst of the crisis (Feb 09) and all-time lows.
Good morning on another snowy Tuesday February 18. Emerging markets are feeling like another episode of groundhogs day as emerging markets continue to move sideways this morning. Tune in for full details of my analysis this morning.