On January 16 a year ago a ferocious rally for emerging markets began that gave you the peak of the year. If you caught this rally you were able to take the rest of the year off, or come back at year-end for the melt up.
A “one year anniversary” is not a strategy call however, and the key point for last year’s move was catalyzed by bullish China macro factors.
Thursday night we get GDP, retail sales and industrial production from China.
Last year’s move was also the result of fund flows to emerging markets that were dramatic. We are in the middle of that cycle now.
It’s also clear from the chart below that emerging markets have lagged the headline index SPX in the last 7-8 sessions as discussed on Emerging Money today and last week. Emerging markets are oversold to SPX and also at the key resistance level it wants to break at.