This AM the Dollar giving back from yesterday’s reversal and continues trade lower. Amazing to me how everyone quickly jumped to more sensational reactions yesterday on how Fed was back in play. How about that the Dollar was very oversold on short term basis but still overbot? Stay with “95 before 110” on DXY. We are still playing this out.
Our view is that investors are not only ignoring data that has changed for the better across the Continent, but that positioning is also leading to more follow through from a 4% move that has already taken place in the Euro off the lows.
As the Fed gathers this morning a quick look at the DXY, now two days into a pause higher, tells me there could be more of a trade here that is more than just two days.
Delta Bank in Ukraine where MBT held $1.4UAH (Ukrainian Hryvnia) or $60 million U.S. dollars in cash and deposits at the end 2014 has declared insolvency.
Relative to weightings in the Global MSCI EM Index, there are countries that are hot and some that are not, and it’s not all based on fundamentals. We care because hot markets have priced in good news and cold markets may offer opportunities once a catalyst changes sentiment.
As we mentioned on the call we want to highlight where emerging markets are looking at potential tests of the mild up channel we have been in since December global market lows, as well as pointing out that emerging market equities are challenging the important .1900 level on the “EM/DM spread.
BRICs dominating the news-flow…some good, some overrated, some awful. Let’s also highlight key events for the week, not least the US Payroll number on Friday.
Do I think Inflation is Rising?
I have to say I do. Last week the Fed told us with a dovish voice that they could still see liftoff when you don’t expect it. I think a lot of folks don’t expect it. Last week CPI data was more than a little hot. Higher oil prices reverse what was the match that lit latest round of CB easing and QE measures. Falling oil really put the wind at the EBC’s back.
Coke: Im Lovin it!
McDonald’s and Coke, they go hand in hand (much like their lesser cousins Burger King and Pepsi) in many ways. You were either a McDonald’s guy or a Burger King guy growing up and if you were a
But making money in the oil trade is another. Oil analysts have been largely wrong in the last month on oil prices and the strong rally off the lows.