On the call we give you first round thoughts after a wild night of polling and trading.
People have been bearish on EM (EEM, quote) growth and we continue to hear trade data spouted daily that is stated to indicate limited upside growth to EM economies in the near term. Fundamentals are debatable, but core technical factors are working for EM investors:
Emerging Money Daily Audio Call June 1 – Global markets following some key events over the next few days which include OPEC, ECB and US Payrolls.
Emerging markets are weaker as the Dollar hits EMFX while at the same time the Dollar not affecting commodities. A continuation of the delinking between the Dollar, markets, and downward commodity prices?
Lots of talk today on Brazil and a potential move to the right with the (all white and all male) Michael Temer government moving into place. What’s clear is that the market locally has enjoyed the political change and maneuvering and hope of a new fiscal backdrop.
Investors need to look closely at the chart of the commodity index (CRB) for a fresh break of the 200dma to the upside that if sustained will be the first time the index has traded above this key technical level since August 2014 or just after the rout in oil began to gain steam.
Emerging Money Daily Audio Call March 21 – This morning we preview the week with quiet macro but some minefields out there for investors.
Despite a higher USD today and an expectation that the Fed could re-introduce some hawkish language, oil trades higher. We are now 50% off a bottom that people said was going lower.
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- Student union backtracks on threat to close universities