Emerging markets are weaker as the Dollar hits EMFX while at the same time the Dollar not affecting commodities. A continuation of the delinking between the Dollar, markets, and downward commodity prices?
Lots of talk today on Brazil and a potential move to the right with the (all white and all male) Michael Temer government moving into place. What’s clear is that the market locally has enjoyed the political change and maneuvering and hope of a new fiscal backdrop.
Investors need to look closely at the chart of the commodity index (CRB) for a fresh break of the 200dma to the upside that if sustained will be the first time the index has traded above this key technical level since August 2014 or just after the rout in oil began to gain steam.
Emerging Money Daily Audio Call March 21 – This morning we preview the week with quiet macro but some minefields out there for investors.
Despite a higher USD today and an expectation that the Fed could re-introduce some hawkish language, oil trades higher. We are now 50% off a bottom that people said was going lower.
With crude oil prices down nearly 50% during 2015 we’ve seen the effects of lower prices across many sectors.
Crude oil traders’ sentiment strengthen on comments from ECB President Draghi yesterday in which the ECB will be “reexamine“ monetary policy.
Crude oil gave back its gains from yesterday’s rally. Volatility has picked up once again in the oil patch as traders attempt assess whether there will be enough global demand to cut into the historical surplus that has tankers just sitting off the coast unable to unload its oil.
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