Markets kick off a big week as we dive into 2Q and earnings season, and digest a US Payroll number that was extraordinary in its weakness.
After the anemic non-Farm Payroll (NFP) in the USA with revisions to the two previous months, risk assets have an opportunity to break through recent resistance.
Emerging Markets are nearing recent trend highs against the SPX and may be poised to trade through recent resistance as we head into a challenged US earnings season and Emerging Markets have had the kitchen sink thrown at it and is coming back for more.
As we near quarter end global markets rallying this AM as relief from Yellen Q/A meets some degree of calm after a volatility inspired week.
This AM the Dollar giving back from yesterday’s reversal and continues trade lower. Amazing to me how everyone quickly jumped to more sensational reactions yesterday on how Fed was back in play. How about that the Dollar was very oversold on short term basis but still overbot? Stay with “95 before 110” on DXY. We are still playing this out.
As goes the Dollar as goes volatility and risk assets. After Whirlybird said the Dollar had room to weaken (sort of) we got validation of the call we made BEFORE the Fed: “95 before 110” was the trade named (see Emerging Money last week).
Markets rallying and sending VIX lower but watching ley levels as we remain elevated through the Fed this week. I want to see the VIX close below 15 today but it’s difficult to expect vol to disappear no matter what the Fed tells us on Wednesday.
Over the last three months and from the lows set back in early February, the Emerging Money Country Allocator Index (EMCAI) has outperformed the benchmark MSCI.
WTI Crude Oil (USO, quote) spot price ticks slightly lower this morning as commodity traders have to wait an additional day for the department of energy’s inventory report. Traders will be watching closely the American Petroleum Institute (API) Weekly Crude Stock report scheduled for today after the close.
We have made changes to our Emerging Money Global Index to reflect changes in underlying prices of the components based upon our view of the remaining 2Q investment and allocation dynamics for these multinational companies who count EM as key to their revenue and growth vision.