We have been stalwarts on saying the Dollar has peaked for this cycle. We also didn’t factor a Brexit vote into the USD path. Binary or not binary in hindsight that approach seems short sighted. We will take the market we have rather than the one we want which is what we have been doing […]
Using a chart provided by UBS and taken from data from EFPR who compiles an amazing amount of information on fund flows within the investment community and particularly insightful on EM, we want to assess where the opportunities for rotation, beating the index, and where we think investors are offsides.
Gold has suffered a swift 5.5% move in 7 sessions on the back of the Fed and some signs of more active policy. The Dollar therefore has rallied 4% on the DXY and Gold therefore gets killed right?
Biggest beneficiary of waning Brexit fear is Europe. IFO today in Germany better than expected and overall sentiment still on defensive despite ECB ready to roll out more Euros.
Was this a Fed scare or just “getting on with it”, or neither? The fed did not change the path that existed for their next policy move as communicated to us after the April meeting.
Rates higher as we wait for Fed minutes. Clearly the short end of the US curve is more fearful of the Fed than the long end.
GLEN, X: Resource names may be building another round of momentum to take out recent highs after a sharp pullback took 25% off the run in names like US Steel.
RUSSELL (IWM): The Russell staged a big move off the lows at 960 and has been consolidating for a few weeks above the important 1075 level ( $108 in the $IWM).
As we wait for Fed to potentially knock EM equities back on their heels know that the EM equity rally is rooted in the move higher in EM currencies.
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