Lots of talk today on Brazil and a potential move to the right with the (all white and all male) Michael Temer government moving into place. What’s clear is that the market locally has enjoyed the political change and maneuvering and hope of a new fiscal backdrop.
While I will be quick to point out that I expect volatility to test last week’s highs again before the end of October there is a decent argument that Emerging Markets may be getting close to a turn after 5 years of sputtering in the face of the Feds global liquidity fantasy camp. “Capitulation” is […]
Between Greece and Payrolls and a long holiday weekend it’s not a surprise to see volatility elevated today.
As goes the Dollar as goes volatility and risk assets. After Whirlybird said the Dollar had room to weaken (sort of) we got validation of the call we made BEFORE the Fed: “95 before 110” was the trade named (see Emerging Money last week).
Get a jump start on this week’s trading with Tim’s thoughts on inflation and how to play it.
Can India truly deliver on the promise of the best demographic and consumer growth story in the world? India is the BRIC country without any other members. India is delivering “China like” growth and has been one the best performing major EMs in the last 12 months (+36%).
The Brazil trade continues to work with equal lifting coming from both the currency and the Ibovespa. In total return you have seen a 14% move off the lows on Dec 16th with the drivers being.
Despite recent equity outflows, emerging markets remain poised to outperform as the Fed reveals clearer signs of its policy.
I have often talked about how Emerging Markets correlate very highly with small cap stocks in the U.S. for a couple reasons:
Emerging Money Daily Audio Preview Call July 22 – On the call today we dig into the outperformance of Emerging Markets versus Developed Markets, another 70 basis points today and we believe the spread continues to trend higher especially with fund allocations being very supportive.
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- Trump to preside over a ‘fiscal bloodbath’ instead of Reagan ‘reincarnation’: StockmanSource: Fast MoneyPublished on 2017-01-21
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- WATCH: Boity’s gym game is boss