We're selling our March $23 calls into the Putin smokescreen today.

Image courtesy The Kremlin: www.kremlin.ruLast week we indicated that you could play the Crimea referendum tactically by owning Russia through the weekend.  

The call was there would not be any additional military escalation and that we might even get constructive dialogue with the west.    

All have played out although the dialogue with the west needs to be understood. Putin is saying one thing but taking a more literal approach to his game plan.

We believe that Friday will bring a Russian decision to annex Crimea and with it a heavier slate of sanctions.  

Local press (Kommmersandt) is saying just that, and this is how locals are positioning.  We would agree and fade this nice 2-day rally. You may get a little more love tomorrow before the escalation.

We suggested buying RSX (RSX, quote) calls last Wednesday and Thursday and have an average price of 0.22c. We are selling over the day into strength and plan to be out tomorrow.  Right now with mid-market price of .75c we have almost a 300% return in 5 days.sg2014031843645

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