Tonight, we get a slew of important demand from China (FXI, quote) and none possibly more important than a fresh reading on export growth. 

china map flagLast month we were delivered a -18.1% downprint which is hard to really put into context.  It's hard to be shocked by that number despite its being shocking. 

Weather related distortions and some Chinese New Year hangover may have added to the story, but it's not easy to explain this type of drop off in western demand for Chinese goods and services. 

So we are not going to accept those numbers.  We will throw them out the same way people regularly dismiss stronger than expected Chinese State data saying it is manufactured. 

Tonight, we look for +4.8% export growth, and +3.9% import growth.  We also get Trade Balance figures, M2 and New Yuan Loan data.  Top strategists on the street are calling for weaker than the expected numbers.

The issues to focus on for China is rising costs and lower cost competitiveness (labor) are keeping demand from China down.  These structural issues have come to the surface overnight but are part of a five year trend.  Tonight's releases will offer upside risk/reward to the current emerging markets rally.

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