Emerging Monday Daily Audio Call July 3 - Global watch and wait mode as global markets are quiet with the US holiday and the anxious wait for the Greek referendum vote.
Right now momentum appears slightly to favor a yes vote but right now impossible to give any real analysis here that is definitive. What happens on a no vote is more serious than we think markets are expecting.
Some smart voices in the global economic purview say contagion will follow via bank runs across other parts of the periphery. It’s hard to say complacency is warranted here. We repeat, there is no reason to avoid higher cash levels or hedged protection for your portfolio.
China is now within 200 points or 5% on the CSI300 of wiping out the last major leg of this insane rally. We expect more attempts at soothing commentary by the local press but not necessarily a policy response.
Two weeks from earnings season means you have potential to see some opportunities for stock picking around all the macro. We remain glass half full on EU equities and selective on US equities over the next six weeks.
EM will trade with risk premium highs and lows and also with (inverse to ) the USD, which is dancing near breakout levels.
Have a healthy and safe holiday in the US and great weekend globally.
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