As we touched on in a note on January 3rd, the ratio of gold/platinum is an interesting relationship that has had historical levels that made sense before the crisis. 

platinumThis relationship was rooted in the fundamental industrial uses of each metal and to some extent the role that each precious metal played (and still plays) in central bank reserve policy.  

Platinum (PLTM, quote) traded around 2x what gold (GLD, quote) was worth per ounce for the first 8 years of the last decade, but that relationship changed massively when Fed policy changed beyond any historical expectation.

Thus gold spiked in price outright and relative to platinum as a function of gold being an inflation hedge, a policy hedge and a metal whose demand was not necessarily defined by core economic fundamentals.  

In the case of industrial uses of PGMs, demand also fell putting more pressure on platinum, as platinum historically has not shared the same "hedge" investment holding rationale.

As the Fed continues to taper and industrial uses of these metals recover with the global economy, this spread should return to levels that existed before the crisis.  Even with a move from 1.1X gold/plat to around .85 today, there is a strong argument this trend continues well into the .70's in 2014.  sg20140120465321mosg20140120466521yrsg20140120465321mo

Tagged with:

Leave a Reply