The Chart of the GBP is clearly reveling in the expectation of Remain vote in the Brexit saga but should it be trading at levels it saw last year before the Brexit gambit was a reality?
The Pound should not be rewarded for its master, UK staying in the EU beyond its fundamentals. The UK is a triple deficit country with the trade balance and fiscal deficit weighing on the GBP. At a minimum the UK will survive this vote and limp towards 1.5% GDP growth with an economy that is reliant on services that are slowly eroding ( See Financial Services). The fiscal deficit is about 4% of GDP and getting worse.
Risk Reward has this relief rally as a short term fade. The brighter picture for the path of the currency is related to commodities and reflation trades, and even global growth. Over my investing history I have used the GBP (FXB, quote) ...
See how the Emerging Money Team is playing Brexit today.
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