Happy New Year from Emerging Money!

We start you off with four charts that matter today and will matter this year –

Image courtesy thetaxhaven: http://www.flickr.com/photos/83532250@N06/

Chart 1 is Italy’s PMI –

Italian PMI came in this morning higher than expected and along with Germany remains a bright spot for the European Union industrial recovery.

Don't load up on Ferraris and Versace just yet, but the trend is very promising.

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Chart 2 is U.S.  Initial Jobless claims –

The trend down on firings remains very positive and right around historic lows.  The US job recovery continues and many expect 2014 to push through the Fed's 6.5% unemployment rate.  

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Next thing to watch is Congress' decision to extend or not emergency benefits past 26 weeks.  Let's hope not. 

Chart 3 is Gold –

Gold (GLD, quote) is +3.5% off the 12/19/13 low and may be oversold here but my view is Gold is going lower before it can base.  The level where I believe Gold get interesting is at the $1,100. 

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This takes you back to 1Q 2001 before Fed policy and European Central Bank concerns blew the doors off of any comfort on global monetary policy.  There is good support on the chart around $1,100 level. 

Gold miners will be HUGE winners in 2014 after gold bottoms. 

Chart 4 is the Turkish Lira –

The Lira starts 2014 off another 1.5% to be at all-time lows against the U.S. dollar.  The currency is enduring the dual threat of current account fears that always exist in Turkey but are exaggerated with the Feds move to taper and eventually tighten and a political scandal that injects more political uncertainty than the country has seen in a decade.

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Turkey (TUR, quote) will be a real tell for emerging market currencies overall in 2014.  If they can overcome their politics and prove they can finance their economy with a mixture of foreign capital and domestic consumption, Turkey will turn higher and this will be a signal for other emerging markets.

 

 

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